The latest population estimates from Stats SA show a mass migration to Gauteng over the last 20 years, with the province’s population surging 73% since 2002.
According to Stats SA’s data, Gauteng is now home to approximately 16.1 million people, up from 9.3 million in 2002.
Over the years, Gauteng has moved from being the second-most populous province after KwaZulu-Natal to comfortably having the largest population in the country.
Notably, the province is also the smallest in terms of area size (18,176 square kilometres) meaning it has moved from about 511 people per square kilometre (sqkm) to 885 people per sqkm over the same period.
Comparatively, South Africa as a whole averages 52 people per sqkm, and the second-most populous province, KZN, is at 129 people per sqkm.
Stats SA noted that inter-provincial as well as international migration patterns significantly influence the provincial population numbers and structures in the country.
By 2025, approximately one in four South Africans are living in Gauteng, which accounts for 25.5% of the population. This is followed by KZN at 19.4%.
12% of South Africa’s population lives in the Western Cape. The Northern Cape has the smallest share of the South African population (2.2%), while Free State has the second smallest share, constituting 4.8% of the population.
The Gauteng population is also expected to continue to grow.
According to Stats SA, Gauteng is expected to see the biggest in-migration across all provinces between 2021 and 2026, with an estimated 1.4 million people moving to the province during this period.
Given its already high population, the province is also expected to see the highest number of out-migrants (around 630,000), but on a net basis, it is set to see the biggest in-migration by far (+790,000).
Proportionally, the biggest influx to Gauteng is seen from Limpopo, where the vast majority of out-migrants will be heading to the economic heartland.
Stats SA said the biggest draw for migrants to Gauteng is work opportunities. This is supported by other job data, which shows that most hiring activity happens in the region.
The province is South Africa’s economic hub and provides the best opportunity for work and career progression, while also offering comparatively higher salaries across most sectors.
Due to its high levels of urbanisation, it also has some of the most advanced facilities, amenities and public services—though the latter has come under immense pressure.
Notably, it is not only internal migration that is flowing toward Gauteng, but international migration as well.
Stats SA estimates that South Africa will see net immigration of over 860,000 international migrants between 2021 and 2026, almost half of which (406,000) will land up in Gauteng.
A significant proportion will flow to the Western Cape as well (~105,000), but Gauteng is still expected to receive four times more international immigrants than the next highest province.
The significant growth in Gauteng’s population represents a significant demographic shift for the province, and comes with big challenges.
Most of the immigrant population moves to urban areas and metros like the City of Johannesburg, City of Tshwane and City of Ekurhuleni.
As a result, the province and cities have experienced immense pressures on infrastructure, with a concomitant rise in demand for water, electricity and public services, which have not kept up with the growth.
Across Gauteng’s three major metros, all have faced pressing funding and infrastructure issues.
Notably, the development and maintenance of bulk infrastructure has failed to keep up with growing demand, exacerbated by widespread mismanagement, maladministration and corruption within government.
This was evidenced by perennial budget problems in Tshwane, the gradual and noticeable collapse of Johannesburg, and growing instability and unrest in Ekurhuleni.
National power utility Eskom has faced crisis-level problems with non-payment and growing debts owed by municipalities, as well as targeted areas like Soweto, where a culture of non-payment has taken root.
The province’s water board, Rand Water, has also experienced consistent issues with non-payment, over-use, leak losses due to a lack of maintenance and the province’s general growing demand profile.
Issued on BusinessTech by Staff Writer | https://businesstech.co.za/news/government/833216/the-one-province-in-south-africa-where-everyone-wants-to-live/
